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特朗普的转折——他的新阿富汗战略可能会改变南亚规则,对印度来说是机遇 [印度网评]

五毛网 印度 2017年08月27日 来源:龙腾网

The Trump discontinuity - His new Afghan strategy could be a game-changer for South Asia.  There is an opportunity for India

特朗普的转折——他的新阿富汗战略可能会改变南亚规则,对印度来说是机遇Written by C. Raja Mohan | Published: August 24, 2017 12:00 am

作者:拉贾·莫汉 | 发表:2017年8月24日 12:00


Although India has been quick to welcome President Donald Trump's new assertive policy in Afghanistan, sceptics in Delhi would wonder if Washington has the political will to carry through the promised pressure on Pakistan to stop hosting terror sanctuaries on its soil.  For Delhi, the question is not whether Trump's Afghanistan strategy is a glass half-full or half-empty.  It is about seizing the opportunity opened up by his new policy to raise India's profile in Afghanistan. 


Within hours of his speech earlier this week outlining a new American approach to Afghanistan, Delhi welcomed “President Trump's determination to enhance efforts to overcome the challenges facing Afghanistan and confronting issues of safe havens and other forms of cross-border support enjoyed by terrorists. ” In his speech Trump had declared that the US “can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond. ” He demanded that Pakistan's support to cross-border terror “will have to change” and “change immediately”. 


On Trump's affirmation that India ought to do more, Delhi pointed to India's significant past efforts to promote economic reconstruction in Afghanistan.  It added that India “will continue these efforts, including in partnership with other countries”. 


India's positive response does not mean that Delhi is unaware of the enduring impulses in Washington to forgive Rawalpindi's transgressions in Afghanistan.  Whatever the US president might say, there are large sections of the US deep state that caution against a radical shift in US policy towards Pakistan.  Few countries have gotten away so long with what Trump has accused Pakistan of doing: Pakistan shelters “the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people.  We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists we are fighting.” 


If the US has tolerated this for the last 17 years, Delhi has good reason to be cautious in its assessment of what the Trump Administration can compel the Pakistan Army to do today.  In any case, what we heard is a mere speech.  Turning the words of that speech into actions of the ground will not be easy.  Delhi has no reason to hold its breath.  While scepticism is healthy, cynicism that ignores the changes taking place in the US regional policy is not.  After all, Trump has said something about Pakistan in public that his predecessors were not willing to.  If the previous administration acquiesced in Pakistan's double dealing on terror, Trump has threatened Rawalpindi with consequences if it does not change its behaviour. 


It is equally important for Delhi to note the shift in Washington's thinking on the Indian role in Afghanistan.  The Bush Administration's strategic warmth towards India was expansive.  It wanted to help accelerate India's rise and invested enormous political capital in getting the world to lift a four decades-old nuclear blockade against Delhi.  Yet when it came to Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Bush Administration drew a red line for India.  It cautioned Delhi against too large a role in Afghanistan.  The Obama Administration began with the proposition that the answer to Afghanistan might lie in promoting a resolution of Pakistan's Kashmir dispute with India.  It required intensive diplomacy from India to fend off these initiatives. 


Delhi must necessarily keep its eyes open for a return of these familiar themes in the US approach to Pakistan.  At the same time, India must also appreciate the most important change in US Afghan policy.  Until recently, Washington believed that India's rivalry with Pakistan is part of the problem in Afghanistan.  Today Trump might be betting that by invoking a larger Indian role in Afghanistan, he might add to the pressures on Pakistan to cooperate with the US. 


Despite all the talk of playing the China card against the US, Pakistan is acutely conscious of the dangers of being treated as a rogue state by the West.  Its thundering silence in response to the Trump speech, suggests that Rawalpindi has chosen to avoid, for now, a public argument with Washington. 


The Pakistan Army will try and find ways to limit Trump's fire and fury.  It will not be easy, however, for Pakistan to abandon its investments in cross-border terror.  It would try and finesse the issue of terror sanctuaries.  Rawalpindi will offer some cooperation in countering terror and make new promises to bring the Taliban to the table.  It will urge US pressure on India to start talks on Kashmir.


While India must prepare for the possibility of the US slipping back to its old ways on Pakistan, Delhi's current emphasis must be on taking advantage of the Trump discontinuity in the American policy towards the Subcontinent.  A positive Indian approach would involve three elements — economic, security and diplomatic.


For one, India must ramp up its economic diplomacy in Afghanistan to bring immediate benefits to Kabul amidst the deteriorating conditions in the country.  Second, Delhi must step up security cooperation with Afghanistan, especially in the training of its police and armed forces and intelligence sharing.  Third, on the diplomatic front, India must counter the emerging argument that Trump's new approach will intensify the “Indo-Pak rivalry” in Afghanistan and the old one that Kashmir holds the key to peace in Afghanistan. 


Delhi must remind the world of India's commitment to regional cooperation with Afghanistan and Pakistan, in an atmosphere free of terrorism.  Prime Minister Narendra Modi had articulated this vision in an address to the Afghan parliament on December 25, 2015.  Shortly after declaring that Pakistan can be a bridge between India and Afghanistan, the PM had traveled to Lahore on very short notice to wish Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on his birthday.  Pakistan's army responded by launching a terror attack in Pathankot a few days later. 


Trump's new Afghan strategy could be a potential game-changer for South Asia or a brief exception to the familiar pattern of US-Pak relations.  While recognising the potential shadow between Trump's words and deeds, Delhi must bet on its own activism that can influence future outcomes in Afghanistan. 


Pakistan Has To Cooperate, Else Action Will Be Taken As Spoken By Donald Trump- Afghan Envoy 



Indian Abroad 
Aug 25, 2017 at 7:58 am 
All great but India's raised profile in Afghanistan will come at a price.  There is no free lunch.  India will have to invest more in Afghanistan. 


Ak Dev 
Aug 25, 2017 at 6:15 am 
It's now crystal clear that China and Pa kistan are both enemies of India.  Pa kistan has decided to die fighting India.  China has decided to create conditions in India so that its economic growth rate slows down.  India's response now has to account for both Pa kistan and China. 


        Ak Dev 
        Aug 25, 2017 at 6:18 am 
        I appeal to Indians to watch the debates on P a k TV channels through .  Every Pa kistani has been taught that India is its enemy and most of Pa kistani hate India. 


                Ak Dev 
                Aug 25, 2017 at 6:18 am 
                through y o u t u b e. 


FT Daku 
Aug 25, 2017 at 3:43 am 
There is only one everlasting solution for Afghanistan.  It is a very simple 3 step solution.  Step 1.  All the Afghani immigrates to India where they will be warm welcomed and have a bright future.  Step 2.  The land of Afghanistan is divided and shared between Iran and Pakistan Step 3.  Trump is allowed to build a 5 star hotel and golf resort in Tora Bora.  It will be the mother of all hotels.  Like this everyone will be happy and problem solved for ever. 


Aug 25, 2017 at 12:44 am 
It is a fact that Pentagon call the shots in US foreign policy since America today is a military empire.  Escalating military conflicts all over the world means more money in US defense contractors pockets.  This is replicated by other powers like China, Russia etc. Poverty and economic inequality has been steadily rising in the US for the past 30 years.  One wish the think tanks (funded by special interest groups) spend more time and energy on helping alleviate poverty in their own countries.  India needs to clean-up and emerge as an economic power to be an international player.  Notice how China did this in the quarter of the last century. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 11:19 pm 
Indian policy inside the Indian subcontinent should seek complete dismemberment of the only state ideologically motivated against us, that is Pakistan, into its ethnic divisions starting with Balochistan.  In fact if Pakistan is broken into 5-6 successor states, then I'm not opposed to letting go of the toxic 99 peaceful Kashmir valley (while still keeping Jammu and Ladakh).  On the other end, perhaps we should seek to integrate Nepal and Bhutan and Sri Lanka into the Indian union as their own states and have article 370 like provisions for them.  This will strengthen the Hindu/Dharmic majority of India as well as eliminate chickens neck issue substantially.  Tibet needs to go back to being a sovereign buffer between India and China. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 8:44 pm 
The deal with Washington should be simple.  India can have its army boots on Kabul for US provided it gets a direct access to Afghanistan via Gilgit baltistan.  I am sure having India to support its Afghan force can be quite appealing to both Kabul and Washington.  With Gilgit India could get Kashmir issue resolved and get a gateway to Kabul and former Soviet countries 


        Bert Brech 
        Aug 24, 2017 at 10:17 pm 
        Rubbish.  Indians are direly threatened by China today.  We need assurance of US support if China attacks us.  On Afghanistan we can step up economic assistance.  Any other demands would be arrogant folly.  You are a Porki agent. 


OP Gupta 
Aug 24, 2017 at 8:01 pm 
India has to adopt proactive policy towards Afghanistan in security matters short of sending Indian military.  Our policy towards Pakistan is stale and needs reappraisal 


Aug 24, 2017 at 6:22 pm 
Glass is never full.  Loopholes are always there.  All this means availability of new challenges, new opportunities.  Bold people make bold decisions to the point of them being foolhardy.  Almost.  India can sit and debate or it can take the bull by the horns and tame it to its advantage.  Nothing is permanent except national interests.  The way Modi sarkar has handled os on Dokhlam, and the kicked their hinds in the Ladakh sector has made the world aware that India does have pears.  To the column writers, I'd suggest to free themselves of their colonial mindset that India has to follow others.  It is time to abandon reactive policies and start being original. 


        Bert Brech 
        Aug 24, 2017 at 10:21 pm 
        Indians are direly threatened by China today.  We need assurance of US support if China attacks us.  CHINA IS WORRIED ABOUT AN INDO-US ALLIANCE !!!!!  What are we waiting for? 


Aug 24, 2017 at 6:15 pm 
Having winked for long at Pakistani terrorism, in fact even abetted it through bad policies and inaction, the US is in the position of one who has left the stable gates open and let the horses run away.  Thumbing its nose against the US is also China which now is a strong supporter of Pakistan despite its becoming an outcast in the eyes of the world.  Short of scorching a 20 mile area within its entire border and making it uninhabitable, there is no way Pakistan's terrorists can be contained by the US or anyone else. 


Pais Hilary 
Aug 24, 2017 at 5:24 pm 
This unscrupulous businessman of a President is trying to get India involved in multiple ways and then get to deploy Indian troops in Afghanistan.  Inevitably, there will be clashes with the Taliban and may be IS that will make the insurgency back in the Kashmir Valley look like a picnic.  You can consult the British Army troops that were deployed in Helmand a few years ago, for an authentic reference. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 3:57 pm 
The contrary view, rabid Pukistani kuttas are beneficiary of the twisted and power crazy lusty Chinese, largesse and doles to the begging bowlers.  How long for ?  Well that all depends on the policy makers and Modi of India.  to neutralise the Chinese financial gloss and hegemony, the power balance in S. Asia, India must grow the economy at over 8 for the next 20 years, this will enable India to surpass China economically and militarily, have a bigger FX Reserves , and a gleaming confident country.  Job done.  Power and fear is projected through strong growing economy and lethal military power of all dimension.  The world respect and fear the TOP DOG, including the Chinese, because of these attributes.  Pukistan is a an opportunist dust bin soon it will be no match for India, it will fade into history. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 3:56 pm 
It has become habit of some in India to ignore ground realities.  Pakistan wants whole of J K and will not rest unless it gets Kashmir.  Point two is, how far Indian public and army will tolerate our soldiers getting killed for a cause which may never be solved ?  There is only one solution, either India handover Kashmir to Pakistan or liberate PoK by force.  Pakistan's main aim is to destroy India, it will never be a peaceful country.  After Kashmir, Pakistan will pick up some other issue and carry on it's terrorism. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 2:54 pm 
If Pakistan and India could manage to resolve all of their issues including the issue of Kashmir then there will be no reason for Pakistan to support Taliban and any other militant group. 


        Aug 24, 2017 at 3:32 pm 
        A touch of realism is needed.  Pakistan, and especially its all powerful army, has defined itself as being India's enemy.  In Kashmir, the problem was caused by Pakistani invasion - not by Indian acts.  In 1948, the UN asked Pakistan to withdraw its forces as a first step of which the last was a plebiscite.  Pakistan has not done so but has done much damage to the local demography.  The first step in Kashmir's resolution has to be the withdrawl of Pakistani troops from Kashmir.  If you think India should surrender in the face of terrorism, you are welcome to your opinion but very few will support your logic. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 1:05 pm 
India must continue, quietly, its work for the benefit of BALUCHISTAN.  Do not speak, do...  gradually and steadily...  Baloch are the first tribes of Vedic people, the Mengal and Bugtis are Sanskrit names.... 


Harish Desai 
Aug 24, 2017 at 12:00 pm 
Unless and until india develops its own economic, strategic, diplomatic, military capabilities, superior enough to generate respect and big enough in making impact if needed for its neighbors to think twice before going or acting against India's interest, the at ude to search for or count upon the support of powers far away having their own interests to weigh before ours will not help. 


Ehsan Habib 
Aug 24, 2017 at 11:07 am 
I'm baffled, with 150,000 troops and the state of the Art Eye in the skies, why couldn't USA and NATO control Afghan Taliban.?  USA wants a foothold, to keep an eye on Russia and China.  It tried ISIS in the region and Pakistan's response Rajgal valley must have surprised the handlers.  Now I think it's time to come open. 


        Aug 24, 2017 at 1:13 pm 
        No one believes in your conspiracy theories.  Keep ranting and harping. 


Aug 24, 2017 at 10:51 am 
It was the US who created this mess in Afganistan aftet all, so they are guilty and have a responsibility.  In the pretext of fighting Soviet occupation they used all the resources and botched up a group in Afganistan with the full military support from Pakistan.  It was only after this that Pakistan got a bargaining chip for Kashmir.  It should have no connection with the bilateral issue between India and Pakistan, whatever it is!  As for the Chinese, they are just using the Pakistanis and cannot sustain bankrolling as the US do.