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日本网评:来自历史于的警告:日式崩溃将会冲击中国?

五毛网 日韩 2017年08月25日 来源:

Frenzied buying saw land prices quadruple in the mid-to-late eighties, and the Nikkei stock index hit almost 40,000 in 1989 -- double its current level.   Photo: AFP/Fil

80年代中期日本地产价格疯狂增长了四倍,日经指数在1989年达到40000点——是现在的两倍。图片:法新社

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TOKYO - Sizzling property prices, a groaning debt load, wealthy tourists and tycoons willing to slap down eye-popping sums for art: China is starting to look like Japan before its economic bubble burst in the early 90s.

 

东京—狂热的地产价格,摇摇欲坠的债务,富裕的游客和企业大亨购买昂贵的的艺术品:中国经济状况看似与90年代日本泡沫经济崩溃前的情景很相似。

 

The similarities are not lost on Beijing: President Xi Jinping has commissioned a study to help China avoid Japan's pitfalls, according to Bloomberg, as growth slows and ratings agencies sound the alarm over its debt.

 

北京也看到了这些相似之处:布隆伯格消息,随着经济增速降低评级机构警告中国债务水平不断增长,习主席已经任命了一项研究以帮助中国避免陷入日式经济陷阱。

 

Fears over China's groaning debt load were heightened after the IMF warned this week the world's second largest economy was on a "dangerous" path, urging Beijing to take a more sustainable course and speed up structural reforms.

 

国家货币基金组织这周警告世界第二大经济体处在危险的边缘,呼吁北京走更可持续的发展道路并加快经济结构改革,中国庞大的负债总额受到了更多关注。

 

China was also downgraded this summer by Moody's with the credit rating agency citing the country's ballooning debt, sparking an angry response from Beijing.

 

中国不断膨胀的债务导致评级机构穆迪下调了中国的信用评级,激起了北京方面的愤怒。

 

Debt-fuelled investment in infrastructure and real estate has underpinned Chinese growth for years since the global financial crisis a decade ago decimated growth in Western markets that booming exporters relied on for growth.

 

自从10年前全球金融危机爆发,依赖出口增长的西方国家经济增速大幅下降。对基础设施和房地产的负债投资却巩固了中国经济增长的基础。

 

Japan was the original Asian tiger, with growth surging at an average 9.0 percent annually between 1955 and 1973 in the long postwar boom, turning it into one of the world's great economic powers.

 

战后经济爆发式增长时期,日本经济自1955年至1973年年平均增速达到了9%.使得日本成为了亚洲首富以及世界经济强国。

 

China has also basked in heady growth -- replacing Japan as the world's number two economy in 2010 -- and has not seen a single recession in decades.

 

中国也正陶醉在经济飞速增长中——在2010年取代日本成为世界第二经济强国,数十年内看不到衰退的迹象。

 

Japan too is groaning under a huge national debt, the legacy of monetary and fiscal policies aimed at boosting growth.

 

日本也正挣扎在庞大的国家债务中,这是当初促进经济增长的货币和财政政策后遗症。

 

Japan's debt load is now more than 200 percent of its Gross Domestic Product. China's debt is around 260 percent of GDP, up from around 140 percent before the 2008 financial crisis.

 

日本的国债已经是其国内生产总值的2倍。中国国债从2008年经济危机前GDP的140%提高的260%。

 

Eighties-era Japan kept interest rates low, creating excessive liquidity in its economy.

 

80年代日本保持了较低的利率,在经济体系中创造了过量的流动性。

 

Frenzied buying saw land prices quadruple in the mid-to-late eighties, and the Nikkei stock index hit almost 40,000 in 1989 -- double its current level.

 

80年代中期地产价格疯狂地增长了四倍,日经指数在1989年达到40000点——是现在的两倍。

 

But it all came to an end when the central bank abruptly tightened policy. Stock and land prices plunged, businesses stopped investing, consumers stopped spending and bad loans piled up.

 

但当央行突然收紧了政策后,一切都结束了。股价和房地产价格跳水,企业停止投资,消费者停止消费,坏账堆积如山。

 

That ushered in a period of low or no growth known as the "lost decades".

 

之后就进入了一段被称为“失去的几十年”的低增长或无增长时期。

 

Chinese stock prices remain well off their 2015 highs. But mainland house prices have been soaring, particularly in hubs like Beijing, Shanghai and southern industrial powerhouse Shenzhen.

 

中国股市在2015年达到高点后保持平稳。但是大陆地产价格飞涨,尤其北京,上海以及作为南方工业发动机的深圳房价。

 

Both countries saw their arrival on the world stage announced by striking acquisition of foreign assets, as Chinese overseas investment hit $170 billion last year, surging 44 percent from 2015.

 

两个国家都通过收购外国资产站上了世界资本舞台,中国去年海外投资达到了1700亿美元,在2015年基础上增长了44%。

 

China's Anbang Insurance bought New York's Waldorf Astoria hotel for almost $2 billion in 2014, while tycoon Liu Yiqian purchased Modigliani's "Nu Couche" for a record $170.4 million in 2015.

 

2014年,中国安邦集团以20亿美元收购了纽约瓦尔多尔夫 阿斯托利亚酒店。2015年,企业大亨刘益谦以创纪录的1.704亿美元收购了莫迪利亚尼旗下的Nu Couche。

 

Those big-ticket purchases bear the hallmarks of when Sony scooped up Columbia Pictures for $3.4 billion in 1989 and Mitsubishi Estate paid nearly $850 million for the controlling stake in the operator of New York's Rockefeller Center.

 

1989年,索尼以34亿美元收购了哥伦比亚电影公司,而三菱地产斥资近8.5亿美元收购纽约洛克菲勒中心。

 

In 1990, Japanese paper tycoon Ryoei Saito bought Vincent Van Gogh's "Portrait of Dr Gachet" for $82.5 million and Pierre-Auguste Renoir's "Bal du Moulin de la Galette" for $78.1 million.

 

1990年日本造纸业大亨齐藤良平以8250万美元收购了梵高画作“加谢医生的肖像”,以7810万美元收购了奥古斯都 雷阿诺的《煎饼磨坊的舞会》

 

"What's scary is that people in China are thinking, 'China is special, so we are OK.' That's exactly how people felt in Japan during the bubble era," said Kokichiro Mio, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

 

“中国人多么疯狂啊,‘中国是特殊的,所以没问题。’这就是日本人在经济泡沫时期对中国的感受。”NLI研究所经济学家Kokichiro Mio称。

 

Still, China is not a mirror image of Japan 30 years ago.

 

然而,中国并不是30年前日本的翻版。

 

The Chinese economy and its currency are tightly controlled by the state and shielded from foreign influence to a far greater extent than Japan.

 

中国经济及其货币政策受到国家的严密监管,较日本更少受外国的影响。

 

And Beijing has launched a crackdown on "grey rhinos" -- powerful private conglomerates -- amid fears they are racking up dangerous debt levels through buying frenzies and threatening financial stability.

 

北京已经对“灰犀牛”——强大的私有企业采取了强力惩处措施。人们担心他们购买非法债券达到危险的债务水平以至于威胁金融稳定。

 

"The current circumstance in China is considerably better than that of Japan back then," said He Chao, assistant professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

 

“中国当下经济环境比日本当时更优越。”上海财经大学的助理教授何超表示。

 

"The whole property market... is under relatively strong control of the Chinese government."

 

“整体地产市场仍受到中国政府的强力管控。”

 

Lessons from Japan suggest officials should have acted more quickly to bring in stricter banking regulations to keep lenders from overextending themselves and better manage the economic slowdown.

 

来自日本的教训表明,官员们应采取更严格的银行监管措施,以防止银行过度扩张,并更好地管控经济增速放缓。

 

But Chinese "authorities are more able to regulate bank loans and the financing of speculative transactions, and they can intervene in markets", said Ivan Tselichtchev, an economics professor Japan's Niigata University.

 

但中国“当局更有能力监管银行贷款和投机性交易,他们会干扰市场秩序”,日本尼加塔大学的经济学教授伊万·特塞利切夫表示。

 

Others point out that China is not the advanced economy that Japan was at the time its bubble burst, meaning there is much more room for the economy to grow and increase productivity.

 

其他经济学家指出中国并没有达到日本泡沫经济崩溃前的发展程度,意味着仍有经济增长和生产力提高的空间。

 

But even if China is headed for Japan-style troubles, warnings from its neighbour may not mean much.

 

但是尽管中国也面临了与日本同样的问题,但是来自其邻居的警告也许没什么意义。

 

"Unless you feel the pain, I think the message doesn't quite hit home," said Mio of NLI Research Institute.

 

“除非你能感到那种痛苦,我认为这种提醒不会切中要害。”NLI研究所经济学家Kokichiro Mio表示。

 

"China is not without people who are voicing concerns, but as it was in Japan, that doesn't stop people from investing especially when you think prices will only go up."

 

“中国不缺乏认识到这个问题的人,但就像在日本一样,当房价增长时这种提醒不会阻止人们投资”

 

以下是评论:

ThePBotAug. 18  07:02 am JST
I think another key factor that the article didn't point out was Japan literally got economically screwed by the Plaza Accord. If anything, it started there. How can you manage your own economy when you allow a foreign country to tell you what to do with it, at the expense of your own?

我认为另一个文章没有提到的关键因素是日本在经纪上被广场协议束缚了。如果日本经济有问题,就是从那时开始的。当你只能听外国人告诉你怎么管理经济,损失也要自己承担时,你怎么能经营好国家经济呢?

TohkaAug. 18  07:21 am JST
It's only a matter of time. Good times will not last forever. All things come to an end; this is inevitable.

这只是时间问题。好时光不会持续太久。所有东西都有终点。这不可避免。

The CCP can try and crack down as much as they can but I think the lasting damage has already been done. The debt levels and how much they've accelerated over the last 10 years has been really astronomical.

中国可以随便尝试,任他们镇压经济。但我认为危机已在酝酿。过去10年的债务水平和债务增速是一个天文数字。

China, you are not special. You are going to feel the same pressures and issues as other established economies now. The only "special" bit is that you are only just starting to see these same issues that other established economies have been dealing with in a cyclical fashion for quit some time now. This is the problem the longer the "good times" go on for, the memories of the last "bad times" or recession tend to fade quite quickly and people have the expectation that the current "good times" are the norm.

中国,你并不特殊。你也会像其他发达经济体一样承受同样的压力和问题。唯一的特殊之处就是你们只是刚开始经历那些其他经济体早已经历过的周期性问题。这就是“好日子”持续时间长的,而“坏日子”或“经济衰退”的记忆往往会很快消失,人们就会期望现在的“好时光”是惯例。

BertieWoosterAug. 18  07:29 am JST
If the IMF is involved, of course it will.

如果国际货币基金组织也参与了,那么发生经济危机毫不奇怪。

The "bursting of the bubble" wasn't an accident, it was caused. By people who made a massive profit from it.

“泡沫经济的破裂”不是意外,而是有原因的。是那些从何危机中获益巨大的人造成的。

Just a userAug. 18  07:41 am JST
I think another key factor that the article didn't point out was Japan literally got economically screwed by the Plaza Accord. If anything, it started there. How can you manage your own economy when you allow a foreign country to tell you what to do with it, at the expense of your own?

我认为另一个文章没有提到的关键因素是日本在经纪上被广场协议束缚了。如果日本经济有问题,就是从那时开始的。当你只能听外国人告诉你怎么管理经济,损失也要自己承担时,你怎么能经营好国家经济呢?

yes yes yes! I also believe Japan started the downward spiral at that point. China still controls their currency so they can somewhat protect there ex rates from being affected by foreign disasters (like a Lehman shock type).

是的,是的,是的!我也相信日本经济就是在那时开始衰落的。中国仍然管控着自己的货币,因此他们可以在一定程度上保护本国的率不受外国经济危机的影响。

ScroteAug. 18  09:53 am JST
As the unelected Chinese dictators control everything, anything that goes wrong can be blamed on them and them alone. Scapegoats will be found and executed following a show trial, but the top crook and murderer,will blame everyone but himself.

那些未受选举上任的独裁者控制者一切,所有出错的事情都可以归咎于他们。他们受到了孤立。在一场表演性的审判之后,会找一个替罪羊代人受过,但最顶级的骗子和凶手除了他自己外会责怪所有人。

DisillusionedAug. 18  09:58 am JST
The situation in China is very different from Japan. Firstly, China has natural resources to fall back on, which Japan does not. That will be the biggest difference if the Chinese economy does start to crash. Also, most Chinese do not work for over inflated salaries, as the Japanese did during the bubble years. Yeah, if it does peak and start to crash the fat cats will lose a lot, but the base of the economy will not flounder, unlike Japan.

中日状况完全不同。第一,中国有自然资源做倚靠,日本没有。如果中国经济没有崩溃,这就是最大的区别。同样的,大多数中国人不会在物价飞涨时继续工作,但日本人在泡沫时期做到了。是的,如果中国经济达到顶点并开始崩溃,这只肥猫会受到巨大损失,但不像日本,经济基础不会受到影响。

Robert S. AbenzAug. 18  11:19 am JST
China, you are not special.

中国,你并不特殊。

Did they said they are special to you?

为什么他们说你是特殊的?

You are going to feel the same pressures and issues as other established economies now.

你也会像其他经济体一样承受同样的压力和问题

Ouch. Don't want to suffer alone, eh?

哎呀。不想单独忍受经济衰退的痛苦,是吧?

The only "special" bit is that you are only just starting to see these same issues that other established economies have been dealing with in a cyclical fashion for quit some time now.

唯一的特殊之处就是你们只是刚开始经历那些其他经济体早已经历过的周期性问题。

Sorry, dude. I don't think so. Other "established economies" are using the similar system which is not comparable to China. That's why you have 2008 financial crisis and pathetic growth since then.

不好意思,伙计。我不这样认为。与中国相比,其他“发达经济体”采用的也类似的经济系统。这就是为什么你们会有2008年的经济危机,之后经济增长也很可怜。

I bet you didn't see the 2008 crisis coming to your "established economies" back then, Mr. Nostradamus?

我猜你根本没有仔细观察过08年经济危机后那些发达国家的表现,是吗,诺查丹玛斯先生?

This is the problem the longer the "good times" go on for, the memories of the last "bad times" or recession tend to fade quite quickly and people have the expectation that the current "good times" are the norm.

这就是“好日子”持续时间长而“坏日子”或“经济衰退”的记忆往往很快消失,人们就会期望现在的“好时光”是惯例。

Exactly. The pathetic growth of your economies are the norm right now, when the growth of China's continue to beat the expectations of "sage of Western-style economy".

没错。你的国家经济保持低速增长就是常态,而中国的经济增长模式不断在拍“神圣的西方模式”的脸。

Wisdom to heal the sour and jealousy inside your heart: Deal with it. Instead of praying for other country to dragged down to your level.

只有智慧才能治好你心里的酸水和妒火:治一治吧。别总想着把其他国家拖到你国家那种境地。

MocheakeAug. 18  11:28 am JST
This isn't a question of if it will happen. It's a matter of when. No country is special or immune no matter whst some fools might believe.

这不是中国经济是否会崩溃的问题。这只是时间问题。无论那些傻瓜信还是不信,没有一个国家与众不同或者能免疫于经济危机。

TohkaAug. 18  11:42 am JST
My family is of Chinese descent and my post has absolutely nothing to do with any personal feelings or political persuasion on my part. I've seen way too many Chinese who are just plain oblivious to the dangers of having mounting piles of debt and think that because China is "special", that what happened to the Western economies "could never happen to them" and then naively seek to lecture others about how they could "never get into this kind of scenario". Wrong. China now has a very big debt problem which is akin to what many established Western economies have today. All debts need to be repaid.

我是华裔,我的观点与私人感情或政治偏好无关。我看到过太多中国人对越来越多的债务无动于衷,觉得中国很特殊,那些发生在西方经济体的事情“永远不会发生在中国”。他们天真地寻求使中国不会陷入经济危机的理论,错了。中国现在就有与西方发达经济体类似的庞大债务问题。所有的债务都要偿还。

The amount of profligate spending has been astounding. To try to use an attack on "Western economies" is just like what I've seen with too many Chinese unfortunately nowadays, it's just a sign of being completely oblivious to the dangers of the debt situation. You cannot just keep on borrowing and borrowing and borrowing; it does not work, as all debts will ultimately need to be paid off.

挥霍性开销的总额无法想象。利用危机攻击“西方经济体”就好像我看到的不幸中国人一样。对债务危机完全视而不见。你不能一直借贷。这没有用,债务最后都要偿还。

Also, the stock crashes in China of recent years showed how too many Chinese had an unrealistic expectation of economics at the time and kept thinking that the only way stocks could go was UP. Wrong! As I said in my initial post, there is no such thing as an "everlasting good time". Due to these unrealistic expressions, people will end up being very unprepared for the eventual downturn.

同样的,近几年中国股市的崩溃显示了有很多中国人对于经济增长有不切实际的期望,仍然认为股市只会上涨。错了。就像我在开头说的那样,没有“永远的好日子”这种事情。由于这些不切实际的期望,人们对最终的衰退毫无准备。

Western economic growth has been pathetic and I definitely agree with that. To try to call me out on being sour and jealous shows you have zero knowledge and are only basing off my post on a nationalistic viewpoint; the anemic nature of Western economic growth awaits China if it chooses to be blissfully oblivious and not get its act together on this crazy mounting pile of debt. China is not special in this regard and the speed of the accumulated debt is honestly, a very serious issue. To be fair, it's not only China that has this issue.

西方经济增长一直很可怜,我也承认。叫我别羡慕嫉妒恨又显示了你没有学问,没有理解我的民族主义观点。如果中国选择幸福地无视问题且不积极应对山一般的债务,那么西方经济体增长乏力的问题就在等着中国。就这一点而言中国并不特殊,债务的迅速增长是一个严重问题。说句公道话,并不是只有中国有这个问题。

Robert S. AbenzAug. 18  12:38 pm JST
. I've seen way too many Chinese who are just plain oblivious to the dangers of having mounting piles of debt and think that because China is "special", that what happened to the Western economies "could never happen to them"

我看到过太多中国人对越来越多的债务无动于衷,觉得中国很特殊,那些发生在西方经济体的事情“永远不会发生在中国”。

Those Chinese that you see are certainly laymen, then, not those whose in control. The government is acutely aware of what could happen to their economy.

那些你看到的中国人没有掌控中国经济,确实是门外汉。政府一直在谨慎地等待会发生的经济问题。

and then naively seek to lecture others about how they could "never get into this kind of scenario"

他们天真地寻求使中国不会陷入经济危机的理论

Lol. Sorry again, dude. The one who keeps on lecturing other nation is the West and their media.

哈哈。再一次抱歉,伙计。那些向其他国家推销理论的就是西方和他们的媒体。

Also, the stock crashes in China of recent years showed how too many Chinese had an unrealistic expectation of economics at the time and kept thinking that the only way stocks could go was UP. Wrong! As I said in my initial post, there is no such thing as an "everlasting good time"

同样的,近几年中国股市的崩溃显示了有很多中国人对于经济增长有不切实际的期望,仍然认为股市只会上涨。错了。就像我在开头说的那样,没有“永远的好日子”这种事情。

The stock crashes problem in the beginning of 2016 has been fixed and causing no more problem, which very disappointing China doomsayers, including you, I guess.

2016年初股市崩盘问题已经被解决也没有产生多余问题,我猜这使中国灾难预言者包括你,很失望。

the anemic nature of Western economic growth awaits China if it chooses to be blissfully oblivious and not get its act together on this crazy mounting pile of debt. China is not special in this regard and the speed of the accumulated debt is honestly, a very serious issue.

如果中国选择幸福地无视问题且不积极应对山一般的债务,那么西方经济体增长乏力的问题就在等着中国。就这一点而言中国并不特殊,债务的迅速增长是一个严重问题。说句公道话,并不是只有中国有这个问题。

Well, wait and see, then! Meanwhile, please refrain from lecturing and giving warning to other nation as if they don't aware of what could happen to them, and only you are aware and know how to solve the problem. Lol.

好吧,等着瞧。同时请停止推销经济理论,也别给那些没意识到会发生什么的国家随便发警告。好像只有你知道怎么解决问题一样。哈哈哈

In fact, if you are really concerned about mounting debt, you should worry much more about our good ol' USA.

实际上,如果你真关心债务问题,你更该担心我们的好好女士,美国。

To be fair, it's not only China that has this issue.

说句公道话,并不是只有中国有这个问题。

JeffLeeAug. 18  12:39 pm JST
Public debt levels had and have nothing to do with it. It was due to an asset bubble pumped up by real estate speculation and massive amounts of loans from a loosely regulated financial system (sound familiar?).

经济危机和公共债务水平没有关系。只与房地产投机造成的泡沫和松散金融监管体系造成的大规模借贷有关。(听起来耳熟吗?)

The Chinese can avoid the disaster as long as its regulators take a hard line against shadow banking and other excessive trends inside its banks.

只要中国继续对影子银行和过度金融化保持密切监管,就能避免经济危机。

TohkaAug. 18  12:52 pm JST
This, and also, people need to stop feeding this crazy demand to always constantly borrow.

除此之外,同样的人们需要停止借钱给这个疯狂的国家。

kazetsukaiAug. 18  02:41 pm JST
China is a different economic animal. And it is an "animal" before logical and rational analysis.

中国的经济模式完全不同,不能用逻辑和常理分析。

One major factor which everyone ignores is the temendous advantage it has by having thousands of China towns in hundreds of cites throughout the world, and thousands of covert companies involved in controlling natural and human resources throughout the world. That was expanded by the Chinese government for decades using foreign monies (obtained by cheep labor within) to infiltrate foreign nation in the guise of Chinese "foreign aid". It now even influences and controls many banks and though it international politics, enough to affect the IMF and to start their own monetary funding system designed to "control" money internationally for its own benefit. Their economy is not entirely on the surface as many analysts like to think.

一个主要被忽视的优势因素是,中国拥有成百上千座城镇以及数千完全掌控自然和人力资源的公司企业。几十年来中国政府一直在使用外国货币(通过廉价劳工赚取),以中国“对外援助”的名义渗透国际经济。这甚至影响并控制了很多银行。通过其国际政策,能影响国际货币基金组织。为了自身利益掌控国际金融局势,中国就建立了自己的国际金融系统。中国的经济并不像许多经济学家认为的那样浮于表面。

And for the Chinese, they are always Chinese. How many of the China towns have actually, really assimilated into their host countries?

至于华人,他们就是中国人。有多少中国城真正融入了所在国呢?

Most even refuse to speak the language of their host or adopted countries.

大多数人甚至拒绝说所在国的语言。

It is like the Muslims spread throughout the world and united by religion, while the Chinese are united by race, culture and national identity which is most of all "pride" based upon economic and political power.

就像MSL分布于世界并以宗教为纽带统一为一体,中国人以种族,文化和建立在经济发达和政治崛起基础上的国家认同为纽带团结一致。

What say you about the Chinese economy when those factors are considered?

当这些因素都被考虑到时,你还会对中国经济说什么呢?

Robert S. AbenzAug. 18  02:59 pm JST
What say you about the Chinese economy when those factors are considered?

当这些因素都被考虑到时,你还会对中国经济说什么呢?

Untouchable.

难以捉摸啊

mmwkdwAug. 18  03:00 pm JST
I would hope that a Great Depression could be avoided in China... who knows what ill will come of that ? The recent N.K. spate could even pale into insignificance in comparison.

我希望大萧条也会发生在中国。谁知道会不会有呢?相比之下,最近的朝鲜热潮也无足轻重。

BritloverAug. 18  04:38 pm JST
Any question that is posing a theoretical possibility HAS to be answered ‘yes’. Will it? Well, it’s looking increasingly like it will. The shadow banking system, the inflexibility of its institutions and monetary policy and many more factors to boot. Absolutely China could have a catastrophic economic collapse.

任何提出理论的可能性问题都必须回答“是”。会吗?好吧,看起来很可能会发生。影子银行系统的存在,僵硬死板的监管机构和金融政策。还有其他因素。当然中国会发生灾难性的经济崩溃。

fxgaiAug. 18  06:26 pm JST
Public debt levels had and have nothing to do with it.

经济危机和公共债务水平没有关系。

True wrt 1980's Japan. Public debt was racked up after the crisis (but can't be said to have fixed Japan in the subsequent quarter of a century...)

考虑到80年代的日本,这句没有错。公共债务会在危机后不断积累。(但是不能说与日本后来25年没有关系。)

It was due to an asset bubble pumped up by real estate speculation and massive amounts of loans from a loosely regulated financial system

只与房地产投机造成的泡沫和松散金融监管体系造成的大规模借贷有关。

Broken record / scratched CD.

废话。

Japan's financial sector was highly regulated in the 1980's - the 'big bang' deregulation of the sector did not occur until long after the bubble burst.

日本金融部门在80年代受到严格监管。泡沫经济破裂很久之后金融监管才被取消。

Robert S. AbenzAug. 18  06:27 pm JST
Absolutely China could have a catastrophic economic collapse.

中国当然会发生灾难性的经济危机。

After Britain and the rest of the West collapsed first. Yes, it could be

在英国和其他西方国家都崩溃之后。是的,那时才有可能。

gokai_wo_manekuAug. 18  06:31 pm JST
People keep bringing up that the Japanese debt to GDP ratio is over 200%. If you net off the assets of the government, it is about 100%, like lots of other countries. These assets include the government's 51% ownership in all those government companies that were privatized in from the 90's (remember PM Koizumi?). Like JR (which used to be JNR - Japan National Railroad) or Japan Tobacco and Salt, etc etc etc.

人们总爱说日本债务是GDP的200%。就像其他国家一样,如果你除去政府资产,大概债务是GDP的100%。这些资产就包括政府拥有51%股份的90年代经历过私有化浪潮的国有公司(记得小泉纯一郎吗?)。还有日本铁路公司(过去叫日本国有铁路)和日本烟草盐业公司等等。

fxgaiAug. 18  06:35 pm JST
Lol, on the 'loosely regulated fin sector' thing I find this:

哈哈,关于“松散的金融监管”,我找到了这个:

Encouraged by the Ministry of Finance, the large commercial banks moved into real estate in the 1980s but quickly engaged in imprudent lending.

受到经济部门的鼓励,80年代大型商业银行纷纷投资房地产项目,但很快就专注于盲目出借贷款。

Thanks to the Ministry for its guidance there!

感谢那时经济部门的指导

JeffLeeAug. 19  06:32 am JST
@fxgai
"....but quickly engaged in imprudent lending."

但很快就专注于盲目出借贷款。

In a properly regulated environment, banks would not be able to so easily engage in "imprudent lending" on a colossal scale.

在受到良好监管的环境中,银行无法轻易大规模出借贷款。

fxgaiAug. 20  08:32 am JST
Properly regulated is an oxymoron.

良好的监管就是个矛盾的词语。

Regulators are every bit as fallible as their fellow human beings, and recognizing this is step one.

监管机构和其职员一样容易犯错,然后才能认识到监管只是第一步。


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