首页 > 美国 > 美国网友评论:中国的创新经济是伪装的房地产泡沫吗? [美国媒体]

美国网友评论:中国的创新经济是伪装的房地产泡沫吗? [美国媒体]

五毛网 美国 2016年08月31日 来源:五毛网



转载自:美国网贴翻译  www.wumaow.com

The Chinese government's call to the nation to build an innovation-driven economy from the top down has sparked a rush by local governments to construct new buildings in the name of supporting creativity.


Innovation centers have been popping up around the country and are set to more than double to nearly 5000 in the next five years according to internet research firm iiMedia. The only problem for local governments; entrepreneurs are not moving in.


Many centers are in small Chinese cities or towns not ideal locations for attracting startups. There is no local market for their product no local ecosystem of suppliers and fellow entrepreneurs and centers generally provide only basic amenities such as a desk and a telephone. They lack the financial technical or marketing expertise that many startups need.


Most incubators have occupancy rates of no more than 40 percent iiMedia says.

大部分孵化器的入驻率不会超过40%,iiMedia 称。

The result: like steel mills theme parks and housing before them the country now faces a glut of innovation centers as another top-down policy backfires to leave white-elephant projects and a further buildup of debt.


"The risk of a bubble is extremely large" said Shi Jiqiang a partner at Leilai Management which runs day-to-day operations at a startup base in the city of Tianjin near Beijing.

“泡沫的风险是非常巨大的”,Leilai Management公司的合伙人Shi Jiqiang如是说,该公司在天津的一处创业基地进行日常的运营。

"This is both a test for government and for the managers of startup spaces ... there aren't enough entrepreneurs."


China's Ministry of Industry and IT declined to comment and the state planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission did not respond to a request for comment.


Beijing argues its development model that worked so well for infrastructure and real estate powering the country through the global financial crisis can build successful high-tech startups.


With slogans such as "mass entrepreneurship" and "internet plus" Beijing has called for innovation centers to be built all over the country hoping to lay the groundwork for the next Jack Ma - who founded e-commerce giant Alibaba - to emerge.


It has encouraged college students and even migrant workers to try their hand at starting their own businesses to transform China into a high-tech economy less reliant on basic manufacturing.


Almost 80 percent of the capital for the innovation centers springing up around the country is coming from the government or universities which are state-backed in China or a combination of sources iiMedia said.

中国新兴创新中心几乎80%的资本都来自政府或者公立大学,或者来源于二者的结合,iiMedia 称。

"In any sort of market you want the experts making the decisions not some technocrat or bureaucrat" said William Bao Bean investment partner at venture capital fund SOSV which invests in startups. "You don't tend to see too many successful companies come out of a government-based decision-making process."

“在任何市场上,你需要专家来作出决定,而不是由技术官僚或者官僚来做决定“投资创业企业的创业投资基金SOSV 的投资合伙人William Bao Bean如是说。”一般来说从政府主导的决策过程中脱颖而出的企业并不太多。”

转载自:美国网贴翻译  www.wumaow.com




seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

One of these innovation centers popped up recently next to our office. These are basically re-purposed "ghost malls" for malls that couldn't make it in retail of which there are many. So call it "fall out" from the real estate bubble more than anything and who wants to be stuck in a window-less subterranean labyrinth? Not the best place to be innovative.

At least this is in Beijing Zhongguancun which does have a startup scene...kind of. And such space might be appealing to lower cost startups who don't want to rent office space out in the suburbs.



turnip1979 40 days ago

This seems to be a non-issue IMHO. If they try to attract foreigners ala Startup Chile they could fill these things up in weeks. If 40% occupied innovation centers is the biggest thing wrong with China they aren't in bad shape.

Btw ... Ontario Canada tried to do innovation from the top-down via the Mars building. The amount of money they spent in real-estate could have been used to give every person with a Masters/PhD in a STEM discipline from an Ontario University a bag of cash. But the buildings look prettier I guess than seed capital.

恕我直言,这个不成问题。如果他们试图吸引外国人到创业加速器(类似智利Startup Chile)来,几个星期内他们就能完善这些事情。如果这些入住率达40%的创新中心是中国最大的错误,那也没有什么不妙。


seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

Believe me they have no interest in foreigners. All this is by Chinese for Chinese.


throwaway1979 40 days ago

Can you elaborate? Is this some kind of xenophohia like we see in other parts of the world? Or is it they want to learn how to do everything in the entire vertical chain (with a focus towards moving up the value chain)? Or something else entirely?

I see Chinese tech companies open up R&D shops in North America and I'm curious what they really want out of it.




seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

The markets they are going after is domestic the primary language even at my branch of an American company (Microsoft China) is Chinese. It is not a place where multiculturalism is common or especially appreciated. A few foreigners get hired here and there but it's not very common at all.

If they really want foreign employees they probably think setting up shop abroad is the only way to do it.



soperj 40 days ago

Because most garages that start ups In Silicon Valley were originally in were windowed?


matt4077 40 days ago

I'd guess they were mostly operated with the doors open at least in the summer. From what I recall most startups in the garage-stage also had no employees. I can see myself working without daylight but I'd never consider subjecting employees to that (It's also illegal in my jurisdiction).


johncolanduoni 40 days ago

> I'd never consider subjecting employees to that (It's also illegal in my jurisdiction)

I'm curious what jurisdiction is this? I've never heard of such a restriction (though I have to say I'm a fan).



seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

Fire code. Offices must have Windows or barring that something else very expensive. Also true for most houses.

China doesn't really have a fire code or if they do it is routinely ignored so it wouldn't be an issue here (e.g. consider the ant tribe of people who live in apartment building basements). And obviously underground malls are treated differently in general.



seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

Touche. Abandoned shopping malls might be a step up from garages.


mac01021 40 days ago

Not really. The point of startup in a garage is that it's your garage. No commute to get there and no extra rent beyond what you were already paying.


seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

China lacks garages. I mean they have underground tenant garages everywhere but there is nothing like the western detached garage anywhere even in the countryside. This might be the next best thing.

However 798 was an old factory complex that was taken over by artists for awhile before that success caused gentrification that then kicked them out. That...would be cool but the Chinese government doesn't think so innovatively (they would never think a bunch old work shops would make a better startup workspace than an abondoned shopping mall - sigh).


798是一个老厂区,艺术家们接管了一段时间,然而其成功引起了高档化,然后他们被踢了出去。那......会很酷,但中国政府不会有如此创意思维(他们绝不会想到一堆旧工作室比一个废弃的购物中心更适合作为创业公司工作区 - 叹气)。


mjevans 40 days ago

How about an arcology overhaul route?

Make more of the 'common' inner areas a combination of hydroponics (above) and greenway parks (beneath). Use skylights and/or artificial sun-lamps as necessary/effective.



jonathankoren 40 days ago

I came from Dalian last month and the entire city seems to be under construction. Just in 5 years the city has changed. There's a new subway that wasn't even under construction then and everywhere you look there's a new high rise condominium being built often times just a couple of blocks away from another either under construction or worse yet a finished but completely empty building. The city is trying to get people move into the reclaimed land in East Harbor and bizarrely even a 19th century Parisian neighborhood... which is empty for 2 years except for an "American-style" kindergarten and a wedding photographer.[0]

It's clearly a bubble. It's hard to understand how any of these are going to be filled. There's no real place to invest except real estate in China and even there it's full corruption. It's apparently not unusual to "own" (well have a 70 year government lease on) on a property but not actually have the deed because the deed has been lost somehow.

It's very weird.



这显然是一个泡沫。很难理解怎样才可填满其中任何一处。在中国没有真正可以投资的地方,除了房地产,即使那里也充满了腐败。显然“拥有”( 唔,有一个70年的政府租约)地产倒也不是非同寻常,但实质上是没有地契的,因为地契在某种程度上已经丢失了。


zhte415 40 days ago

Fantastic. I live in Dalian and have done for around 10 years.


The city has changed - that's why I dropped an alternate career - to see what newspapers were writing about in the mid-2000s about China's rise.


Dalian is not unique in this respect. Cities across the seaboard and a sext few more inland are all doing the same thing.


But is it a bubble? Yes it is but in a strange kind of way. 10 years ago there was one software park with around 12 buildings and a local college. Now that software park has 30+ buildings and there are an additional 3 software parks located further from the city center all larger than it.


The industrial development zone was a road with a bar district and a few 24 hour restaurants (many nearby factories operate round-the-clock shifts) a couple of hotels and several large lots filled by largely Japanese corporations. Now it is a city of 1 million+ itself a city on the edge of the city.


10 years ago there were also a lot of empty buildings all of which are now full. When you visited you probably noticed a lot of high-density housing near the newer office and industrial districts. The local government makes around 1/2 of its revenue (highly trusted word of mouth) from land sales to developers who in-turn(更正:in turn) make their profit from the workers that fill these hugely subsided commercial buildings including the cost of the subway and subsidising busses.


What's the core driver for this?


Jobs for educated people from rural areas who have no hope nor desire to work on the farm or in the rural town. Their family will invest all they have on ensuring their child 'makes it' with a stable job at a big-name company in a clean city. As long as the jobs are coming the city is sustainable.


For Dalian a lot of jobs have stopped coming over the past 1-2 years (4-5 years ago was boom-time especially in BPO and ITO) and construction considerably slowed but these are cyclical. Somewhere else a city is allowing companies to enjoy lower taxes (a lot of incentives in Xi'an Chengdu Chongqing for 'soft' jobs where the export is electronic in the form of email and SVN and not hindered by these cities' physical locations) and the boom is happening there and the city is making money despite the tax breaks it's offering. It's a bubble for sure but it's being juggled.


mrslave 40 days ago

Tangentially: independent of the truth of this article the volume of criticism of China's economy from Western media is hilarious in contrast to propaganda reported verbatim from the USA: the "slow recovery"; metrics that are hollow once the surface is scratched (e.g. jobs numbers comprising large below-full-time service sector new housing starts with growing shared-residence numbers). Never mind bankrupt cities territories and soon states; inflation; and the national debt.


seanmcdirmid 40 days ago

Isn't tangentially just another word for "what aboutism"?

Have you ever tried reading the Chinese media before? It is a step above North Korea's media but still incredibly twisted.


  你以前试着看过中国媒体吗?  它比朝鲜媒体高一层次,但仍然令人难以置信地扭曲。

ra1n85 40 days ago

Can you elaborate or provide sources? The language you use is incredibly dense almost as if an online translation service was used.


adrenalinelol 40 days ago

1. U.S. Natl. Debt: $18.8 Trillion [1]

2. ~ 20 states face some form a fiscal problem/crisis [2]

3. I assume he's talking about the alternative means of measuring unemployment? The worst case scenario that is accepted by mainstream economics is ~10% [3]

None of what he said was wrong but China is in serious trouble. The real-estate bubble is hiding a credit bubble. As the government attempts to scale back stimulus programs the % of the economy which is dependent on such activity will start to feel the pinch. No one really knows how much pain the average Chinese citizen is going to feel but the situation has no parallel in history the amount of money the Chinese government has spent is astronomical. Some economists have stated they expect the debt to peak 283% of GDP... [4]

1. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/us-federal-debt-what/?gclid=CjwKEAjw2PK7BRDPz5nDh9GjoGcSJAAybcS3NpF90rW7AdZ3WqxiM7x5ynKwI8HwDnQBIf8MMDvO8RoCYrDw_wcB

2. http://mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings

3. http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/china-s-debt-seen-rising-through-2019-peaking-at-283-of-gdp

1.美国国民债务: $ 18.8万亿 [1]

2.~20 个洲面临着某种形式的财政问题/危机 [2]



1. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/us-federal-debt-what/?gclid=CjwKEAjw2PK7BRDPz5nDh9GjoGcSJAAybcS3NpF90rW7AdZ3WqxiM7x5ynKwI8HwDnQBIf8MMDvO8RoCYrDw_wcB

2. http://mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings

3. http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm

4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/china-s-debt-seen-rising-through-2019-peaking-at-283-of-gdp

paulsutter 40 days ago

The labor force participation rate kept declining throughout the supposed recovery.


The "unemployment" rate doesn't include people who gave up looking for work among other adjustments it doesn't tell you how many people are actually working. That's what the labor force participation rate measures.

The rise of nontraditional candidates is less surprising in light of this.




wildengineer 40 days ago

In 2006 the federal bureau of labor statistics under George W. Bush concluded the labor participation rate would continue to fall for decades. Labor participation rate is not a strong indicator given our aging workforce.



ZoeZoeBee 40 days ago

Yes the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate due to Demographics has been known for quite some time. It is the inevitable consequence of an aging work force with birthrates below replacement level for a few decades.

The problem is the Labor Force Participation Rate has fallen much quicker than any of the forecasts based upon Demographics. The reason for this is the lack of people working in their prime working years the funny thing is the LFP would be even lower if Boomers were retiring at the rate they are supposed too but the weaker economy had led many of them to delay retirement which in turn harms those who should be working.

A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate


是的,由于人口比例分配,劳动力参与率降低已为大家所知有段时间了。 这是人口老龄化,而出生率又在过去的几十年内达不到替换水平的必然结果。

问题是劳动力参与率的降低速度已比任何根据人口统计学做出的预测都快。主要原因是缺乏盛年的劳动力,而搞笑的是如果婴儿潮一代能在他们该退休的时候退休, 劳动力参与率会更低,但是不景气的经济使得他们中的许多人延迟退休,这反过来又妨碍了本来应该工作的人。



转载自:美国网贴翻译  www.wumaow.com

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