标题：China likely to restrict access to market, disrupt supply chains in a trade war: Economist
China is unlikely to take trade diktats from President-elect Donald Trump and instead use ample tools from multilateral trade rules to financial resources to fight back, a leading economist said.
"We will see some sort of action and the risk is that even small actions—given that the China may push back very hard—could very quickly escalate into a tit-for-tat battle that erupts into a trade war," Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad told CNBC.
"The notion that the U.S. needs to push back against unfair trade is something that is crucial for Trump to establish some credibility with some actions."
-Eswar Prasad, Cornell University economist
Already a verbal sparring war has carried on in the transition to Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20.
This week, Trump's pick ofRobert Lighthizer, an official in the Reagan administration and harsh critic of China's trade practices, to be his chief trade negotiator, also caught Beijing's official notice in standard diplomatic language at a daily briefing in Beijing by the foreign ministry spokesman.
"As has been repeated multiple times and proven by facts, China-U.S. economic cooperation is in its essence for mutual benefit and win-win results," China's foreign ministry said in a statement released late Wednesday.
"After years of development, China and the U.S. have been closely bonded by converging interests. For issues that crop up in our economic relations, proper solutions shall be found on the basis of mutual respect and equal treatment. China and the U.S. should work together to ensure the sound and steady development of bilateral economic ties, as this serves the common interests of the two countries and peoples."
Matt Mawson | Getty Images
So what can China do if the diplomatic route doesn't pan out?
As the second largest holder of U.S. Treasurys, China has a lot of leverage against the world's largest economy, but it's unlikely to use that as a tool against the U.S. since there are few other options for its money, said Prasad.
"The far more potent weapon that the Chinese have is to use either overt or covert measures to restrict the access of American companies to the Chinese market, which is still a pretty fast growing market," he told CNBC's Squawk Box.
"(They can also) disrupt the supply chains that many Americans manufacturers have come to rely on and of which China is a critical component, so that really is one way China can inflict pain on U.S. businesses and on the U.S. economy," he added.
"This could quickly backfire on Mr. Trump and the U.S.economy."
[–]TheMamba42 8 指標 1 天前
There is no reasonable scenario in which we outlast China in a trade war.
[–]toomanyjoyrides 6 指標 1 天前
We would probably "win" at the cost of unnecessarily fucking our economy.
[–]dolphins3 6 指標 1 天前
Don't forget turning the USA into an international pariah.
[–]TomoNews -2 指標 1 天前
How do you figure exactly?
China's domestic economy is a sham. It's only real economy is its export sector, and most of those goods go to the US. If the US stops buying from China, then China is screwed. Not the other way around.
[–]Treci_the_Dragon 3 指標 1 天前
While are close to correct on their domestic economy, there are a few reasons why it would hurt the US a lot if we go to a trade war with China.
1) they hold the largest share of US debt on the international market. While it could be argued with China's manipulation of their currency we owe them less then we should, it is still a lot.
2) They are one of the largest countries on the planet. They have the largest army (numerically), have nuclear capabilities, and hold veto powers on the UN Security Council. Getting in a pissing competition is bad with them is bad for the US, especially when the world is shifting more and more to the Pacific.
3) Our allies would loath us. You have to remember that the US isn't the only nation China deals with. If there is a trade war, counties will pick sides. This would cause turmoil on the global economy and the US will be seen as the instigators (due to Trump's actions and what he said).
While you are correct that in the long term the US would "win" this trade war (stronger middle class in the US, more variety of resources in the US, more options for the US to go to). That said, the amount of short term damage would not be worth the long term victory at this current moment.
[–]TomoNews 1 指標 15小時前
【They hold the largest share of US debt on the international market.】
This is factually incorrect. Japan holds the largest share. Not China. Also, China floating its currency freely is key to narrowing the trade deficit that produced those large Treasury holdings in the first place.
【They are one of the largest countries on the planet.】
Doesn't mean anything. India is also very large.
【They have the largest army (numerically)】
Again, doesn't mean anything. They have no power in the sea or in the air or ability to project themselves that far beyond their own shores.
【especially when the world is shifting more and more to the Pacific.】
This is exactly why China needs to be confronted. The US guarantees security in the Pacific and China wants to replace the US as the military power in the region.
【If there is a trade war, counties will pick sides.】
Are we in a uni-polar world (with the US as the leader?) or multi-polar world? China is trying to assert itself globally. Xi Jinping is trying to set himself up as rule for life in China. The days of China as a "frenemy" is coming to close.
[–]DBDude 2 指標 23小時前
They already restrict access to their markets. They have very burdensome regulations that limit foreign car sales to only a percent or two of the market. If you want to avoid all of the high tariffs and taxes and other red tape, you have to partner with a Chinese company, give them 50% ownership of the business, and share all of your technology with them (which means they'll be making duplicates of your car in another plant within a year, undercutting your sales).