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美国网民评论:关于中国,对唐纳德·特朗普的反思 [华尔街日报]

五毛网 美国 2017年02月02日 来源:五毛网

原文地址:https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-china-a-rethink-on-trump-1485859230


For China, a Rethink on Donald Trump


关于中国,对唐纳德·特朗普的反思


Beijinginitially welcomed a tough negotiator—then came the Mexico episode


北京一开始欢迎这个难缠的辩手,随后便发生了墨西哥难民事件


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 【五毛网】http://wumaow.com

A man at a barin Beijing takes a photo of the inauguration of Donald Trump. Whether banningrefugees or going ahead with a wall along the Mexican border, Mr. Trump hasmade clear in his first days as president that he actually means what he saysto his popular base. PHOTO:EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY


(欧洲新闻图片社摄制)市民在北京一家酒吧拍摄特朗普就职典礼的照片,出任总统的第一天,他就兑现了曾给支持他的选民的承诺:驱逐难民,筑造与墨西哥的边境墙。


By ANDREW BROWNE


作者:安德鲁·布朗尼


SHANGHAI—Theofficials who look after China’s relations with the world respect—even admire—atough negotiator. That’s how they first thought about the challenge of Donald Trump.


上海的一些外交官员对特朗普的第一印象评价是一位值得敬钦的难缠辩手。


Even when he rattled the foundations of U.S.-China relations by taking a call fromthe Taiwan president afterhis election, their calm response reflected hopes that he was bluffing. Indeed,Mr. Trump encouraged the idea by suggesting that trade concessions from Beijingmight make his threats to abandon America’s longstanding “One China” policy goaway.


即使是他赢得大选后与台湾当局的电话会议动摇了中国的基本国策,中国当局也采取冷处理的方式对待,可能中国当局更希望特朗普是在虚张声势。实际上,特朗普确实暗示过如果北京不做贸易让步,他或放弃美国长期坚持的“一个中国” 政策。


By now, it must be dawning on Chinese policy makers how badly theymay have misread him. Whether banning refugees or going ahead with a wall along theMexican border, Mr. Trump has made clear in his first days as president that heactually means what he says to his popular base.


到目前为止,中国的执政者得重新想想他们之前是不是对特朗普有误解了。是否驱逐难民,修建美国与墨西哥的边境墙,特朗普上任第一天就兑现了他对支持他的选民的承诺。


The course appearsset for confrontation between the two nuclear-armed giants over issues thathave been stewing for years: China’s mercantilist trade practices, itscybertheft, military buildup and ambitions to dominate its neighborhood.Chinese leaders must decide how—or whether—to deal with a U.S. president whohas proven more volatile and unrestrained by diplomatic protocol than theycould have imagined, and just as prone to sound off about U.S. allies asadversaries.


中美两个核大国之间的的争端已由来已久:中国近些年来的贸易发展,网络盗版,军力激增,区域霸权展示出了其野心。尽管可能新总统比想象之中更天马行空反复无常,中国的领导人势必已有应对之策。看起来中国对美国还是更倾向于合作伙伴而不是对手。


Can China do business with this White House?


中国会和这届白宫做生意么?


 

A man inBeijing displays a newspaper story on Mr. Trump’s victory. PHOTO:NG HAN GUAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS


(美联社摄制)北京市民展示的关于特朗普赢得大选的纸媒报道


The Mexicanpresident, Enrique Peña Nieto, asked himself the same question afterincreasingly hostile exchanges with Mr. Trump over whether Mexico would pay forthe proposed wall—and canceled his visit to Washington. The two leaders laterspoke by phone.


墨西哥的总统恩里克·培尼亚·涅托也得问问自己同样的问题,自特朗普执政来美墨之间的矛盾愈演愈烈,他取消的访美计划,并且与美国总统就墨西哥是否要为边境墙的建设费用买单进行了一场亲切,友好,坦诚,务实的电话交流。双方充分交换了意见。(黄字我瞎编的)


The episode standsas a warning about how quickly U.S. ties could unravel with China, a far moreimportant relationship, and knock confidence in the U.S. among its Asian allieswho count on the world’s two largest economies getting along. Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador toBeijing, says the Chinese leadership may conclude that attempting to make nicewith Mr. Trump is a waste of time. Mr. Peña Nieto had “bent over backwards” toaccommodate Mr. Trump, he says, welcoming him to Mexico in August with all thecourtesies of a state visit.


这个事件多少说明意义重大影响深远的中美合作也有迅速破裂的可能,现今,美国的亚洲盟友们正夹在世界两个最大的经济体之间瑟瑟发抖。前墨西哥驻华大使豪尔赫·瓜哈尔多说,中国的领导人会认为和特朗普交好是在浪费时间,培尼亚·涅托(墨西哥总统)已经竭其所能的去接受特朗普了,他八月份曾经邀请过特朗普去墨西哥,并以国礼待之。


“I didn’t think hewould be so callous and cruel immediately,” said Mr. Guajardo.


我认为他(指特朗普)不该如此无情无义无理取闹翻脸不认人。瓜哈尔多如是说。


Then there are the tweets. Chinese diplomacy is fastidious.Official exchanges are minutely scripted. Chinese public opinion, conditionedby a sense of national victimhood, is acutely sensitive to foreign slights.Imagine, then, the anxiety of Beijing’s leaders knowing that Mr. Trump couldblow up a high-level meeting by embarrassing themwith a 140-character blast.


接下来就是关于推特。中国的外交是很难取悦的,官方间的交流是特别谨慎的照本宣科。中国的公众舆论,即使收到一点轻怠,表达也十分尖锐,这是一种国家层面的受害者情绪。想象一下,对于北京的中国高层来讲,特朗普想要毁掉一场高级别的会晤只需要用140字符的炸药。


That’s the point, ofcourse. Mr. Trump employs impulsiveness as a negotiating tactic—the “Art of theDeal.” He believes—with some justification—that skillful Chinese negotiatorshave outsmarted their predictable U.S. interlocutors at every turn. Lopsidedtrade flows illustrate the point. U.S. technology markets are open, China’s areclosing. Where’s the reciprocity? “They’re killing us,” Mr. Trump complains.


这就是重点。特朗普惯用冲动战术进行谈判,所谓的“交易的艺术” 。他认为过去中国的一些聪明人在每一次对美谈判中占了上风。不平衡的贸易差正说明了这点,我们开放,他们封闭,互惠在哪儿?“他们正在杀死我们。”特朗普如是说。


Yet there’s adifference between hardball negotiating and gratuitous offense.


然而,强硬交涉和无理取闹是有区别的。


Mr. Peña Nieto can’tafford a complete rupture; he’s torn between national pride and fear that Mr.Trump will withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and badlydamage Mexico’s trade-dependent economy.


培尼亚·涅托无法承受完全的决裂(和美国),他正挣扎于民资自豪感与恐惧间。特朗普将推出北美自由贸易协定,这让墨西哥这个贸易依赖型的国家经济严重受损。


China’s trade surplus with the U.S. dwarfs that of Mexico. ButBeijing has more cards to play. If Mr. Trump raises trade tariffs, it canretaliate against U.S. multinationals such as Boeing or Apple that are reliant on the Chinese market.


和中国与美国的巨大贸易顺差相比,墨西哥的那点份额并不起眼,中国还有很多牌可以打。如果特朗普提高关税,它可以报复美国的跨国公司,比如波音,苹果这类依靠中国市场的公司。


China has missiles and cyberwarfare capabilities. Ultimately, theU.S. would prevail in a military contest over Taiwan or the South China Sea,but at a terrible cost.


中国拥有导弹,网络战能力。或许与中国在台湾或南中国海展开军事竞争我们终将获胜,但是代价无法面对。


Beijing would greatly prefer tough negotiations over a standoff, orworse. President Xi Jinping needs internal stability as he prepares toconsolidate power at a key Communist Party congresslate this year.


或许对于北京来说,这个强硬对手是破局者,总要好过一成不变。对于习主席,今年年底中共有重要会议,此时需要内部稳定来巩固权利。


Any mishandling of the U.S. relationship could expose him tocriticism. Meanwhile, the economy is stumbling; as capital flees the country,export revenues from the U.S., China’s largest market, are more important thanever.


任何对中美关系的不当处理都可能使他陷入批评。与此同时,中国经济蹒跚前行,资本外逃,对于美国的出口市场正变得对中国前所未有的重要。


High-level communication between Beijing and Washington is vital toprevent disagreements spiraling into crises. Diplomats agree that Mr. Trump’smost urgent priority is rolling back the nuclear threat fromNorth Korea. He can’t make progress without Mr. Xi. That meansstriking up a personal rapport. An early summit would help.


北京和华盛顿之间的高层对话是至关重要的,防止分歧演化成纷争。外交官认为,特朗普当务之急是解决朝鲜核问题。(在朝鲜方面)没有习他难有建树,这是建立良好个人关系的一步。加紧举行一个峰会可能会有帮助。


Risk-averse Chineseleaders may try to wait out Mr. Trump, hoping he softens, or his presidencyimplodes. If they take the plunge and engage, his erratic negotiating stylewill be a wild card. Trying to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip will play asdisastrously with China as the wall does with Mexico. In that sense, Mr.Trump’s ugly spat with the Mexican president is ominous.


趋利避害的中国领导人可能会等着特朗普软化,或者直接在任期爆炸。如果他们冒险参与,特朗普飘忽不定的谈判风格就是最大变数。要是用台湾作为筹码和中国谈判恐怕中国的表现会和墨西哥一样。从这点来说,特朗普和墨西哥的丑陋口水仗可不是个好征兆。


Says Mr. Guajardo,the former ambassador: “He doesn’t even allow you to get to the table.”


“他(指中国)甚至都不会给你上桌的机会。”前墨西哥驻华大使瓜哈尔多如是说。


Write toAndrew Browne at andrew.browne@wsj.com


给安德鲁·布朗尼写信:andrew.browne@wsj.com



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美国网民评论:

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【五毛网】http://wumaow.com


Paul Shang

" China has missiles andcyberwarfare capabilities. Ultimately, the U.S. would prevail in a militarycontest over Taiwan or the Sorth China Sea , but at a terrible cost.".....

U.S. has NO obligation to defend Taiwan under theTaiwan act, passed after Jimmy Carter established the diplomatic relations withChina in 1979. As to fight over a few pieces of rock in south China sea, NOBODYis that stupid.

China and U.S. may fight over Twitter accounts,but no more...


(引自原文)中国拥有导弹,网络战能力。或许与中国在台湾或南中国海展开军事竞争我们终将获胜,但是代价无法面对。

美国没有保卫台湾的义务,尤其是当前台湾的种种行径,吉米·卡特在1979年与中国建立了外交关系。为了几块破石头在南海和中国干仗,我觉得不会有国家这么蠢。

中美或有一战,但只会在推特上,不会更多



Fred Havell

Thank you, Mr. Browne, I appreciate this rare example of a journalist writing succinctly.


谢谢你,布朗尼,我喜欢这种简洁的不掺杂立场的文章。



kim cheung

China should accommodate President Trump as far as she can go and help him to secure the base to uphold the American first programme.


中国应当接纳美国的新总统特朗普,帮助特朗普赢的支持他选民的心来实现美国霸权。(这句翻译或有不当,如有更好翻译欢迎指出。)



Michael Hunt

China will understand shorty that the staus quo -which has helped their economy grow- is over. Massive retaliatory trade negotiations will begin quickly with a shot across the bow by the US- and China will be forced to quickly open up markets or risk deminishing export revenue. Trump sees the trade defecit as the one major metric that will guide his negotiating. His team will not rest until things even out. We are living in interesting times.


中国要意识到,他们的好日子要结束了。大规模报复性的贸易谈判将很快开展,美国将迫使中国迅速开放市场,缩减出口份额。特朗普认为贸易赤字是他谈判的一个主题。他的团队将致力于此。有趣的时代啊。



Andrew J Phelan

Where is Jiokle Tantrum when we need him? On holidays or are you waiting for instructions on how to respond to the orange haired one or have you been ordered not to engage? I'm perplexed and I miss you buddy.

Now now kids settle down, nobody is about to nuke anyone. Jokely my invitation for Wu Xing Pijiu and dumplings is still on. Much more fun that being burned alive in a nuclear holocaust. Plus karaoke afterwards if you want to kick on!


#$%^&(我真是日了狗了,看不懂这哥们在说什么,我就看懂了五星啤酒就饺子吃,全文Chinglish,臣妾尽力了臣妾翻不了。)



Jose Arrunategui

My advice to China.  Don't play with fire. Disengage, live your own life, don't attempt to make a bridge. Living in an urban area and having inevitably crossed paths with swindlers, I know how they work, and you could say you were guilty as well.  They work on confusion, you have no clue what's going on.   They work on misdirection, leading you to focus on one thing while they have their intentions on something else.  They will say, "I'm being sarcastic," or "it was just a joke" a lot. They will give you a plan, only to change it quickly, and then not give you any direction.  Think about Trump's main slogan, "lock her up!" Their goal is win-lose. Best thing to do, is stay out.


我建议中国不要玩火。做好自己别管闲事。我生活在都市,自然不可避免的与一些骗子打交道,我知道他们是怎么干活的,实际上我们可能有时也如此。他们的做法是把水搅浑,让你不知道发生了什么,误导你去关注一件事,而隐藏他们的别有所图。他们有时候会说:“我说话是有点直。”或者“就是个玩笑,别在意。”他们通常会给你个计划,然后计划永远赶不上变化,搞得你昏头。想想特朗普也曾说过要希拉里锒铛入狱。但实际上,他只是在意输赢而已。最好的办法就是敬而远之。(特朗普在竞选时曾经说过,他如果当选总统,要lock her up,her指希拉里,但实际上,特朗普胜选后并没兑现这个口号,该回复的主要意思就是,美国政客都不是好东西,中国还是远离的好。但是译者觉得,这种只讲利益不要脸的人来合作简直太好了,因为我国自古以来......译者翻译水平有限,不得不添加注释,望谅解~)



Katy Zhang

China has a low self esteem sadly to say no matter how "tough" it makes itself seems. They need to look in the mirror and be comfortable with just where they are. Their confidence is no match as to the trumps. trumps shall win.


中国的自我认同不够,没勇气说出多强硬的对手他都不怕。他们应该照照镜子好好瞅瞅自己的位置。他们跟川普的自信根本不在同一水准,川普必胜!



DON OWEN

@Katy Zhang Unlike Mexico, Trump feels China and America need one another. He will treat trade deals as mutually beneficial but significantly affected by unfriendly actions and obvious acts of disrespect by China (massive cyber hacking etc). Trump views Mexico as a parasite that lives off the host and accepts no responsibility for massive influxes of people form Central and South America that literally must travel completely across Mexico to even reach the American border. These people now represent 50% of the illegal aliens. The massive narcotics businesses based in Mexico he also views as unacceptable and must be addressed.


@Katy Zhang不同于墨西哥,川普认为中美是彼此需要对方的。他与中国做生意,只是互利贸易,但是也不隐藏自己的不友好不尊重。川普视墨西哥为寄生虫,只知道从宿主吸血,从不主动承担责任。有些中南美洲的难民,完全就是穿越整个墨西哥到达美国边境的。非法移民中50%以上都是这些人。大规模的毒品交易窝点也在墨西哥境内,这对于美国是不可接受的,必须加以解决



Daniel Irimia

Remember the "Obama Plays Down Confrontation With China Over His Plane’s Stairs" ? I am just wondering what would happen if they try pulling the same trick with Trump.


还记得奥巴马的飞机楼梯事件么?同样的事情发生在川普身上会怎样?


【五毛网】http://wumaow.com


Edward Abbott

We have the cards, not China. 

The Chinese would be very smart to talk quietly and privately with President Trump and work with him on trade, North Korea, and limiting their sphere of influence.


有牌打的是我们,不是中国。

中国肯定已经与川普总统秘密接洽过了,关于贸易,朝鲜,和限制他们自身发展什么的。



Christopher Holland

'He doesn't even allow you to get to the table'. Well, good on him - what on earth makes anybody in a foreign country think that Trump owes them a favour, he has to make life easier for you. He doesn't owe you a thing, so stop whining and stop expecting a free lunch. Trump is easy to understand - he wants good things for America, he doesn't do free stuff and if you want a benefit from him, show him you have something that is valuable and worth his time in return. You need America a lot more than America needs you, and Trump knows that even if you don't.


“他甚至都不会给你上桌的机会。”呵呵,好事。我真是百思不得其解为何外国人会认为川普欠他们的。他不欠你任何东西,别抱怨了,别期待有免费的午餐。川普很容易理解,他希望美国好,他不做慈善,如果你希望他对你好,你得显示出你值得他青睐的价值。你想从美国这得到的比你能给美国的多,这点川普知道,但你不知道。



James Strom

Not a Trump supporter and haven't approved anything he has done yet.  But it's unpatriotic to simply oppose a President on all he does merely because you dislike him.  On China, I urge others like myself who mostly oppose Trump to stay objective and support him.  Liberals have harped on China's labor and environmental practices.  Liberals have also complained about depressed wages and job loss.  Please don't mimic Obama's GOP opponents.  Stay objective and put country first.  The only way to get a fair deal with China is to take action.

Disunity on internal issues is fine; things sort themselves out.  On international issues, as much as possible we should aim for unity.  The more unified we are, the more effective the action and the less loss on our end.  If China senses weak public support for the President it will hurt our interests.


我不是一个川普的支持者,也不认可他到现在为止的所作所为。但如果仅仅因为你不喜欢总统个人而反对一切他做的事情,是不爱国的。在中国,我希望人们能像我这样,冷静客观的反对川普,并支持他。白左对于中国的劳工和环境喋喋不休,萧条以及失业。别像奥巴马的老大党反对人士一样,保持客观,苟利国家生死以。解决与中国的贸易公平问题的唯一办法是采取行动。

割裂问题其实很好解决,大事化小。在国际问题上,我们应该尽可能统一。越团结,行动步调越一致,我们的行动就会更有效,损失更少。如果中国觉得我们都不支持我们的总统,这将伤害到我们自身的利益(就问你资瓷不资瓷?)



Charles Edwards

@James Strom President-elect Trump directly intervened in the UN vote on Israeli settlements, a clear violation of the Logan Act.

In any case, support for U.S. interests does not preclude robust domestic discussion. There is plenty of precedent: the principled opposition to the Mexican War, the Spanish-American War, and the Vietnam War. The principle that "politics ends at the water's edge" means just that; we debate here, in the U.S., but we present a united face in our official dealings with outside actors.


@James Strom 特朗普在当选未就任时期在联合国投票干预以色列定居点,很明显违反罗根法。(罗根法,违反罗根法是重罪。内容大体是只有美国总统和国务卿才有权对外国首脑谈论外交政策)

并且,对美国利益的支持并不影响国内讨论。有大量的先例可以佐证: 原则性的反对墨西哥战争,美西战争,越南战争。原则上,“政治的边界在水边“。我们在这里,在美国,可以热烈讨论,但是在对外的情况下,我们是一致的。(政治的边缘在水边是由美国一位军方官员提出的概念,大体意思约等于汉语的枪口一致对外)



James Strom

@Charles Edwards @James Strom Yes, there is that.  I hope Trump starts to see that if he executes his domestic policies in ways that needlessly antagonize and divide then it will be harder to present that unified front.  His "base" won't be enough for most things he wants to accomplish.


@Charles Edwards @James Strom 你是对的,我希望川普能够看到,他贯彻他政策的方式要避免不必要的对抗与分裂,否则以后更难统一战线。他的”选民基础“不足以撑起他的宏愿。



Louis Simons

@Charles Edwards @James Strom I was not around for the 19th century wars but was very much so during Vietnam. Our domestic disunity clearly and profoundly affected discourse  with the enemies, North Vietnam, China and the USSR and prolonged the agony.


我并不是身处19世纪的越南,但现今日子依旧不好过。我们的国内非常不稳定,全是拜敌人所赐。比如北越,中国和前苏联。他们让我们终日受苦。



Charles Edwards

@Louis Simons @Charles Edwards @James Strom No, the protests shortened theagony.


抗议可以减轻你的痛苦。



cecelia holland

@James Strom trump has to come halfway to win support from those he's offended and ridiculed. he hasn't even begun to do that.


川普得变的温和中庸一些才能赢的那些他曾经冒犯和嘲笑过的人。他还没开始做。



James Hipp

Says Mr. Guajardo, the former ambassador: “He doesn’t even allow you to get to the table.”

That's how you do deals??  At this rate, there will be a lot of trade standoffs with the US, while the world gradually learns how to trade around the isolationist and declining (by choice!) US.  We'll be going in the wrong direction for a while, until Trump is gone.


“他甚至都不会给你上桌的机会。”前墨西哥驻华大使瓜哈尔多如是说。

这就是你做生意的方法么?这样下去,美国将会大量树敌,引起贸易的对峙,当世界学会如何趋利避害,我们就会被孤立了,贸易额也会缩水。我们会在错误的方向上一往无前,直到川普下台。



Daniel Marino

@James Hipp while the world gradually learns how to trade around the isolationist and declining (by choice!) US. 

Beg to differ. Everybody and I mean EVERYBODY wants a slice of the US market. Nobody survives without the US market. 

Show me the alternative to it. European market is saturated, Chinese market is closed or inaccessible  due to heavy handed restrictions by the Communists.

Australia, Russia?...Don't think so...President Trump knows it and is playing the cards accordingly.


不敢苟同,每个人,我的意思是世界上的每个人都想要占有一些美国市场的份额。没有美国市场没人活的下来。

给你两个选择,已经饱和的欧洲市场,受到严格政策限制的中国市场,你选哪个?

澳洲?俄罗斯?你真逗...川普总统直到如何打好手上的牌的。



Laura Jean

"By now, it must be dawning on them how badly they may have misread him. "

You could say that about our media, too.


到目前为止,中国的执政者得重新想想他们之前是不是对特朗普有误解了。

我们的媒体也该想想。



JAMES SULLIVAN

@Laura Jean man you people just wont be quiet about the "media".  you realize that fox news is the "media", right? 

Its like talking to a parrot.


你啊,对于新闻媒体还是缺少一些人生的经验。你认为福克斯新闻是”媒体“吧,哈?

他只是像鹦鹉学舌一样。



cecelia holland

@Laura Jean no, many in the media had trump right from the beginning. many more are coming around now as he stumbles around making messes everywhere.


媒体中从来不缺少川普派,他们制造混乱的能力如出一辙。



Noboru Kawai

Unless Trump's option includes US getting out of WTO cleanly, China would just wait for his impeachment (I do not think there is much chance of that happening) or 2020. China's economy will be harmed by trade uncertainties but it can sustain its momentum - the idea of 'victimised China' would protect the party thanks particularly to strict diet of information applied to the populace. If the US borrows China's tactics by ignoring the 'spirit' of WTO but still adhering to WTO rules (!), the pain will grow stronger and rapidly for China (as well as for some others). In any event, all the Western manufacturers have already started to develop plan B for their supply chain management. They too are tempted to wait for 2020, but it seems that Trump would force them to eat the idea of global plan B. Hard work lies ahead not just for Trump.


除非川普宣布美国退出WTO,否则中国估计也就静静的看着他装逼(我认为发生这种事的几率不大),然后等着2020年的大选。川普的不确定的贸易政策确实会伤害中国的经济,但是还是可以勉强维持的。中国的”受害者情绪“还能某种意义上的保护他们的执政党,他们会精确的控制这些舆论的剂量以呈现给他们的国民。如果美国对中国以其人之道还治其人之身,只披着WTO成员国的外衣,中国的日子就难受了(其他国家更难受)。不论如何,西方制造商对他们的供应链管理都已做了B计划的准备。他们也想等到2020年,但川普似乎有些迫不及待的推行全球B计划,计划尚未成功,川普仍需努力,其他人也一样。

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