首页 > 美国 > 美国网民评论:中国将缓解经济疲软,5到15年内可能成为可靠的全球引擎 [美国媒体]

美国网民评论:中国将缓解经济疲软,5到15年内可能成为可靠的全球引擎 [美国媒体]

五毛网 美国 2017年07月12日 来源:五毛网

来源:龙腾网  译者:翻译加工厂

原文地址:https://www.nextbigfuture.com


China’s economy is not falling into a black hole. Wheels are in motion for economic reforms.


中国的经济并未坠入黑洞深渊。经济改良的车轮依旧飞速转动。


China’s mainland equities — known as the A-shares — will be included in the massive MSCI Emerging Markets Index starting in June 2018. Some 222 Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies made the cut. For now the weighting is under 1%. In the not so distant future it will rise to 5%. Brendan Ahern CIO of KraneShares in New York predicts China A-shares allocation will hit 17% at full inclusion in several years. That additional 17% allocated to China will raise its weight to over 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index an index tracked by around $2 trillion in both active and passive investment funds here in the U.S. alone.


中国大陆方面的股票——众所周知的“A股”——将于2018年6月被纳入msci新兴市场指数,约222家在上海及深圳股市上市的公司股票将被纳入指数。尽管目前它们在指数中所占比重低于1%,但是在不久的将来,这一指数将升至5%。美国金瑞基金(KraneShares)首席信息官布伦丹.埃亨(BrendanAhern) 预测说:中国 ”A股“在完全被接纳的数年后,所配比重将达到17%。这额外增加的17%将使得中国在msci新兴市场指数中的比重达到40%以上,msci新兴市场指数(明晟新兴市场指数)单单在美国就包含有大约2万亿美元的能动投资和被动投资基金。


China’s problems of an aging population oversupply and a credit bubble still exist but progress is being made to moderate them.


中国人口老龄化,供应过剩以及信贷泡沫问题依然存在,但已经有改善的措施。


China has switched to a 2 child policy and will likely completely eliminate restrictions on children. This has boosted the birth rate and will reduce the drop in the working age population between now and 2040. The working age population might even be close to the same if there is effective incentives on having children.


中国已转变为二孩政策并可能会取消对生育孩子的限制。这将会提高生育率,并缓解现在到2040年间工作人口的减少。如果采取有效的生育激励措施,那时的工作人口将会和现在差不多。


China had 18.5 million births in 2016 and will likely have similar numbers in 2017. This was the level of births in 1999. Sustaining births per year at 20 million would stabilize or allow for very gradual change in the working age population.


2016年,中国出生了1850万人口,2017年也差不多是这个数字。这也是1999年的生育水平。保持每年2000万的出生人口将稳定并循序渐进地更新工作人口。




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美国网民评论:

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odion Seroshtan 

China needs more people ?? Are you serious ? How about automation in next 30 years ?? Now they will stimulate fertility but how those millions will make money for living in the year 2050 when today's born babies will become adult people ?? Sit at home play videogames and have UBI ?


中国需要更多的人?你是认真的吗?那下一个三十年的自动化怎么办?现在他们刺激生育但是那多出来的数百万婴儿在2050年成年后怎么挣钱养活自己?在家玩游戏然后领低保吗?(UBI=universal basic income)



WarrenTheApeNBF Monitor5 day(s) ago

Increases in the birth rate won't have anything to do with reducing the drop in the aging work force between now an 2040 unless Brian thinks Chinese babies can start making iPhones right after they pop out of the womb. It is too little too late.


提高生育率并不会减轻从现在到2040年劳动人口下滑的趋势,除非brian觉得中国婴儿可以一出娘胎就能制作iphone。现在已经为时晚矣。



China is set up to churn cash flow through it's heavily indebted SOEs. For that high GDP growth rates are needed. Japan went through this as well as S Korea. Japan didn't reform while Korea bit the bullet and did. China will be lucky if it can end up in the middle of those two outcomes. But even that won't be enough.


中国通过负债累累的国有企业来产生现金流。正因如此,需要高的gdp增长率。日本和韩国都曾经历过。日本没有改革而韩国忍受着痛苦做了。如果中国最后的结果能在日本和韩国两个下场之间,那他会是非常幸运的。但即使这样仍然不够。



TomMember6 day(s) ago

And China is on the verge of perfecting unicorn flight and fairy dust production. It's only five to fifteen years away I swear.


而中国正在完善独角兽飞行和仙子之尘(黑科技的意思)的制作。我发誓这只要5到15年。



Fenimore HardyMember in reply toTom 5 day(s) ago

Very true. But the technology will be stolen from companies in Korea Japan and Europe. Chinese engineers are close to reverse engineering Russian fairy dust and stealth unicorn flight as well.


正解。但是这些技术将窃取自日韩和欧洲企业。中国工程师即将完成对俄罗斯独角兽飞行和仙子之尘的逆向工程。



PFranklinNewcomer6 day(s) ago

The collective profits of China's top 20 non-bank companies (assuming belief in the numbers) is about the same as Apple. In one of the articles Bloomies admits they cheery picked the data and didn't include SOE's (which just happens to be all the biggest companies and most of the economy). The politburo is window-dressing the debt and profitability "challenge" for the upcoming meet. 


中国前20名非银行公司(假设数据是可信的)的总利润和苹果公司一样。在一篇文章里Bloomies承认他们精心挑选的数据不包括国有企业的数据(而这些国有企业刚好都是最大的企业,构成了经济的主体)。为了接下来的会议,中国当局弄虚作假自己的债务和盈利能力。


China fakes their GDP and other data. But using proxy indexes shows a 0 to 2% growth rate maybe 4%. IE they had a very fast development when they cranked up the export machine and joined WTO. Now they are plateauing off. The machine was built and global demand is flattish. They can't make up the slack with domestic demand. For instance car sales are flat retailing is a function of replacement products and the Chinese aren't a use-and-toss economy. This bodes for a middle-income trap situation and much earlier than many other countries. China simply doesn't have an engine to catapult the remaining low-income classes into middle-income. THat's because the manufacturing sector is being automated and leaving the country. Foxcomm for instance is firing about 400000 workers and setting up automated factories around the world.


中国伪造了他们的GDP和其他数据。但是有用的第三方指标显示这些数据增长率只有0~2%或者4%。中国经济确实通过大量出口和加入WTO获得了快速发展。现在他们的经济平稳下来。机器已经建造出来,而全球需求疲软。他们又无法通过国内需求来弥补这个缺口,并且中国不是消耗型的经济。这预示着中国比其他国家更早陷入中等收入陷阱。中国缺少经济动力让剩余的低收入阶层进入中等收入阶层。那是因为制造业进入了自动化的阶段或者产业转移到其他国家。富士康就是一个例子,它解雇了400000工人并在全球设立了自动化工厂。



Godfree RobertsExpert 7 day(s) ago

China has been the most predictable economy without a single recession for the past 70 years. Even Mao–who had other priorities–grew it by 6.2% during his 24-year tenure when the best America could manage was 3.8%.


过去70年来,中国拥有着最可预计并没有一点衰退的经济。即使毛时代工作中心放在其他地方,在他24年在任期间,经济增速为6.2%,而美国最多只有3.8%


Nor has corruption ever threatened China's economy. Low-level corruption has threatened its street credibility but there is not–nor has there ever been–policy corruption of the kind we suffer in the USA.


而腐败从来没有威胁到中国的经济。基层的腐败虽然对其街头信誉造成了影响,但是中国并没有我们在美国遭受的那种政策腐败。

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