首页 > 美国 > 美国网民评论:中国将缓解经济疲软,5到15年内可能成为可靠的全球引擎 [美国媒体]

美国网民评论:中国将缓解经济疲软,5到15年内可能成为可靠的全球引擎 [美国媒体]

五毛网 美国 2017年07月12日 来源:五毛网

来源:龙腾网  译者:翻译加工厂


China’s economy is not falling into a black hole. Wheels are in motion for economic reforms.


China’s mainland equities — known as the A-shares — will be included in the massive MSCI Emerging Markets Index starting in June 2018. Some 222 Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies made the cut. For now the weighting is under 1%. In the not so distant future it will rise to 5%. Brendan Ahern CIO of KraneShares in New York predicts China A-shares allocation will hit 17% at full inclusion in several years. That additional 17% allocated to China will raise its weight to over 40% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index an index tracked by around $2 trillion in both active and passive investment funds here in the U.S. alone.

中国大陆方面的股票——众所周知的“A股”——将于2018年6月被纳入msci新兴市场指数,约222家在上海及深圳股市上市的公司股票将被纳入指数。尽管目前它们在指数中所占比重低于1%,但是在不久的将来,这一指数将升至5%。美国金瑞基金(KraneShares)首席信息官布伦丹.埃亨(BrendanAhern) 预测说:中国 ”A股“在完全被接纳的数年后,所配比重将达到17%。这额外增加的17%将使得中国在msci新兴市场指数中的比重达到40%以上,msci新兴市场指数(明晟新兴市场指数)单单在美国就包含有大约2万亿美元的能动投资和被动投资基金。

China’s problems of an aging population oversupply and a credit bubble still exist but progress is being made to moderate them.


China has switched to a 2 child policy and will likely completely eliminate restrictions on children. This has boosted the birth rate and will reduce the drop in the working age population between now and 2040. The working age population might even be close to the same if there is effective incentives on having children.


China had 18.5 million births in 2016 and will likely have similar numbers in 2017. This was the level of births in 1999. Sustaining births per year at 20 million would stabilize or allow for very gradual change in the working age population.






odion Seroshtan 

China needs more people ?? Are you serious ? How about automation in next 30 years ?? Now they will stimulate fertility but how those millions will make money for living in the year 2050 when today's born babies will become adult people ?? Sit at home play videogames and have UBI ?

中国需要更多的人?你是认真的吗?那下一个三十年的自动化怎么办?现在他们刺激生育但是那多出来的数百万婴儿在2050年成年后怎么挣钱养活自己?在家玩游戏然后领低保吗?(UBI=universal basic income)

WarrenTheApeNBF Monitor5 day(s) ago

Increases in the birth rate won't have anything to do with reducing the drop in the aging work force between now an 2040 unless Brian thinks Chinese babies can start making iPhones right after they pop out of the womb. It is too little too late.


China is set up to churn cash flow through it's heavily indebted SOEs. For that high GDP growth rates are needed. Japan went through this as well as S Korea. Japan didn't reform while Korea bit the bullet and did. China will be lucky if it can end up in the middle of those two outcomes. But even that won't be enough.


TomMember6 day(s) ago

And China is on the verge of perfecting unicorn flight and fairy dust production. It's only five to fifteen years away I swear.


Fenimore HardyMember in reply toTom 5 day(s) ago

Very true. But the technology will be stolen from companies in Korea Japan and Europe. Chinese engineers are close to reverse engineering Russian fairy dust and stealth unicorn flight as well.


PFranklinNewcomer6 day(s) ago

The collective profits of China's top 20 non-bank companies (assuming belief in the numbers) is about the same as Apple. In one of the articles Bloomies admits they cheery picked the data and didn't include SOE's (which just happens to be all the biggest companies and most of the economy). The politburo is window-dressing the debt and profitability "challenge" for the upcoming meet. 


China fakes their GDP and other data. But using proxy indexes shows a 0 to 2% growth rate maybe 4%. IE they had a very fast development when they cranked up the export machine and joined WTO. Now they are plateauing off. The machine was built and global demand is flattish. They can't make up the slack with domestic demand. For instance car sales are flat retailing is a function of replacement products and the Chinese aren't a use-and-toss economy. This bodes for a middle-income trap situation and much earlier than many other countries. China simply doesn't have an engine to catapult the remaining low-income classes into middle-income. THat's because the manufacturing sector is being automated and leaving the country. Foxcomm for instance is firing about 400000 workers and setting up automated factories around the world.


Godfree RobertsExpert 7 day(s) ago

China has been the most predictable economy without a single recession for the past 70 years. Even Mao–who had other priorities–grew it by 6.2% during his 24-year tenure when the best America could manage was 3.8%.


Nor has corruption ever threatened China's economy. Low-level corruption has threatened its street credibility but there is not–nor has there ever been–policy corruption of the kind we suffer in the USA.




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